Mr Wadada took the APC ticket with the backing of Governor Abdullahi Sule, while Mr Adamu, who finished second in the party’s primary, has moved on to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to continue his governorship bid.
The 2027 governorship election in Nasarawa State will test whether the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) can manage the fallout from its primaries, with Aliyu Wadada and former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Adamu emerging as the principal figures in a contest that could be shaped significantly by former governor Tanko Al-Makura.
But the significance of Mr Adamu’s challenge goes beyond the defection of a defeated aspirant.
He has the backing of Mr Al-Makura, a former two-term governor and senator whose political history demonstrates an ability to defeat established structures.
That combination, a former IGP with statewide political ambition and a former governor with an established political network, presents a more complicated challenge to Mr Wadada than a conventional third-party candidacy would.
Mr Al-Makura is one of the few politicians in Nasarawa whose electoral history makes his involvement difficult to dismiss.
In 2011, he defeated a sitting governor, Akwe Doma of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on the platform of the then Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).
Mr Al-Makura polled 324,823 votes against Mr Doma’s 320,398, winning with a margin of just 4,425 votes by building a competitive coalition outside the dominant political structure.
That history matters to the present contest.
But Mr Al-Makura’s electoral record since leaving Government House in 2019 also provides a more nuanced picture of his current political strength.
After leaving office, he contested the 2019 senatorial election and won the Nasarawa South seat, defeating the incumbent senator, Suleiman Adokwe. He sought re-election in 2023 but lost the seat to the PDP’s Mohammed Onawo. Mr Onawo polled 93,064 votes against Mr Al-Makura’s 76,813.
The defeat demonstrates that the political influence accumulated by a former governor does not automatically translate into electoral victory, particularly years after leaving office.
Mr Al-Makura has nevertheless remained politically active. He currently chairs the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) board and serves as the North-central Coordinator of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors.
His political relevance is therefore not in doubt. The more difficult question for 2027 is whether that relevance can still be converted into a functioning electoral organisation across the state.
Mr Al-Makura’s association with the wider political mobilisation around President Bola Tinubu also gives him access to networks beyond his immediate political base in Nasarawa.
There is also a striking irony in the present contest.
Mr Al-Makura backed Mr Sule’s political ambition in the past and played a significant role in the political realignments that preceded the governor’s emergence.
He backed Mr Sule’s emergence in 2019 and later endorsed him for a second term. Now, the two men appear to be on opposite sides of the succession question.
Mr Sule endorsed Mr Wadada as the preferred candidate before the APC primary, to the dismay of the other aspirants and several political actors.
Mr Al-Makura questioned the process by which Mr Wadada was presented as the preferred candidate and said he had not been consulted.
He subsequently backed Mr Adamu’s bid for the APC governorship ticket. In May, Mr Al-Makura publicly declared his support for the former IGP’s governorship ambition ahead of the APC primary.
Mr Wadada eventually won the primary, securing 195,285 votes statewide, while Mr Adamu was officially credited with 39,675 votes.
The result did not end the political disagreement. Instead, Mr Adamu left the APC for the SDP. That development has transformed an internal APC contest into a wider political battle.
Wadada has the advantage of structure
Mr Wadada nevertheless begins the general election from a position of considerable strength.
He is the ruling party’s candidate and enjoys the backing of the sitting governor.
He also demonstrated the strength of his support during the APC primary, securing 195,285 votes across the state’s 147 wards to return well ahead of Mr Adamu, who was officially credited with 39,675 votes.
The result gave Mr Wadada a commanding numerical advantage over his closest rival. It also demonstrated the depth of the APC structure behind his candidacy.
But a primary election and a general election are different contests. The general election will require Mr Wadada to consolidate voters beyond the APC and persuade disgruntled party members not to transfer their support to Mr Adamu or another opposition candidate.
That is where the former IGP’s candidacy becomes relevant.
Mr Adamu has taken a considerable political risk by leaving the APC.
