Chuks Okocha in Abuja and Peter Uzoho in Lagos
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has strongly opposed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s approval of a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel, saying it may further deepen the economic hardship for Nigerians already burdened by the astronomically high cost of living, warning the President not to push the people to the wall.
Equally, the 15 per cent tariff has triggered divergent views among petroleum products marketers as some criticised the timing of the policy, warning of more hardship for already suffering Nigerian masses as fuel prices are expected to rise further.
But some others expressed their support for the initiative because of its focus on supporting local refining and discouraging importation with attendant foreign exchange burden.
The new policy, approved by President Bola Tinubu is expected to take effect after a 30-day transition period expected to end on 21 November 2025.
Tinubu had in a letter dated 21 October 2025, addressed to the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, directed the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) on the immediate implementation of the tariff as part of what the government described as a “market-responsive import tariff framework.”
Since the policy became public knowledge, a lot of stakeholders in the petroleum marketing sector have expressed views for and against it, pointing out the gains and the pitfalls for the initiative.
In a statement signed by the National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the party said that while it supports private investments in the energy sector, policies meant to protect such investments must also protect the people and put their interests first.
The party also questioned the rationale behind imposing the levy under the guise of protecting domestic production, pointing out that the Port Harcourt refinery, cited as a key component of the government’s local refining strategy, collapsed just five months after a 1.5 billion dollar rehabilitation, resulting in a 366.2 billion naira lost
ADC noted that the Tinubu administration’s approach to economic reform has remained insensitive to the suffering of the ordinary people, warning that economic growth that condemns the majority to a life of hardship and misery is ultimately destructive.
The coalition party said the recent decision to approve a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel, coming at a time when Nigerians were already suffocating “under the weight of Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, this fuel tax is both insensitive and misguided, and makes one wonder if the APC government ever considers the pains that its policies have continued to inflict on the people.”
According to the spokesman of the ADC, ”From all indications, this new levy is likely to push the pump price of petrol beyond N1,000 per litre. If this happens, life would become even more unbearable for families, commuters, transporters, farmers, and small businesses already struggling under the weight of fuel subsidy removal without social protection and currency devaluation without safeguards.”
Reacting to the policy during an exclusive chat with THISDAY, a major oil marketer and Chief Executive Officer of 11Plc (formerly Mobil Nigeria), Mr. Adetunju Oyebanji, said while the government had its reason for introducing such policy, which is to support local refining, it ought to have also considered the fact that the local refiners are not yet meeting the country’s petrol demand.
He added that the cost of production of the local refineries could be higher than the import price, a situation he said needed further thinking before the policy against petrol importation was made.
He argued that by imposing the 15 per cent tariff when domestic refineries were not meeting up to the local demand means that the pump price of petrol may go up as import cost and cost of local production rise.
Oyebanji said, “Well, my belief is that maybe government is doing it because they want to protect local refining. But the challenge is that, as of now, local refining is not able to produce enough to satisfy local demand. That is number one.
“And secondly, it looks like the cost of production of the local refinery is higher than import price. So, by taking this action of putting 15 per cent in a situation where the local refining is not meeting up to the local demand, it means that two things will happen. Number one, people will have to continue to import to a certain extent, which means, with 15 per cent tax, that means those imports will be higher.
“And because I already told you that the cost of local refining seems to be higher than imports, then the local refiners too are going to increase their price. So, as a result, at the end of the day, as we have always been saying, it is the consumer that will bear the brunt of this thing. So, it may have been better to wait for the local refiners to be able to be sure that they are meeting local demand 100 per cent.”
When asked if petrol pump prices could rise above N1,000 per litre as a result of the new policy, he refrained from making specific price projections, but stated that prices would likely go up.
He, however, explained that “if we are already paying N970 and you add 15 per cent to N970, I’m sure, by calculation, you know where that takes you already. So, the likelihood is that prices will go up.”
On whether the government balanced the need to protect the poor masses and that of local refiners, another marketer, who pleaded for anonymity in this report, told THISDAY, that the federal government may have been lobbied by some powerful forces to take such a policy decision in their favour.
But he didn’t mention those powerful forces.
“You know, there are different lobbies in a democracy. Everybody will be lobbying to make things favourable to their own side of the business. So, it depends on the lobby that government is listening to in taking its decisions. I can’t really say.
“I’m just speculating that it’s likely that because of wanting to protect local refining, that’s what would seem the logical explanation.”
The source expressed disappointment with the absence of the downstream regulator – NMDPRA, in such industry decision.
In his intervention, Taurus Oil and Gas Limited, Dele Uwefoh, warned that removing import diversity too early may leave the downstream market vulnerable to the very disruptions the country is trying to prevent.
“The risks we must acknowledge, implementing a 15 per cent import duty now carries several unintended risks: Higher landing costs, inevitably leading to higher pump prices; inflationary ripple effects across transportation and commodities; reduced private sector participation, as importers retreat from uncompetitive margins; concentration of market control, limiting transparency and choice.
“Reduced depot activity and job losses in the midstream and downstream ecosystem.
“These outcomes do not strengthen our economy, they strain it,” he said.
While noting that revenue should not come at the expense of resilience, he argued that while the government needs to grow non-oil revenue, the fiscal policy must be developmental, not disruptive.
Uwefoh warned that if the 15 per cent duty destabilises supply or raises prices, the inflationary consequences could erode the very gains it seeks to achieve.
According to him, revenue is only sustainable when the system generating it remains healthy.
He added that strong markets were built on trust, predictability, and balance, not on sudden fiscal adjustments.
Uwefoh further said, “The smarter path forward, we can still achieve government’s goal, without destabilising the market, by taking a measured, inclusive approach:
“Phase the duty gradually, start with five per cent, assess impact, then move to 10 per cent and 15 per cent when local refining is fully stabilised.
“Maintain a level playing field between importers and local refiners to encourage efficiency and prevent monopolistic pricing.
“Ensure pricing transparency from refineries, so the market can plan confidently.
“Strengthen evacuation infrastructure, so local products reach every region without bottlenecks. Institutionalise stakeholder dialogue, ensuring that government, refiners, depot owners, and marketers align on policy sequencing.
“That is how reform becomes sustainable.
“This is not opposition, it is partnership.
“It is easy to label industry voices as selfish or resistant. But the truth is, those who understand the market most intimately also understand its vulnerabilities.
“This is not an argument against government policy, it is a call for strategic patience and collaborative execution.”
Also lending his voice on the matter, National President of the Petroleum Products Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, told THISDAY that the policy was a good one as it seeks to support local production and availability of products.
He said the government was trying to find a middle ground on how to balance local production and availability of petroleum products.
“So we believe the decision is taken to ensure that there is product availability. Yes, it might affect the pricing, but prices are what in this season will never be stable.
“It will be fluctuating, but we just don’t want our fluctuation to be so high. It should be just within a small margin. So, it will take some time for empirical hassle and trial before we can be able to compute how positively or adversely it affects the business and therefore the public.
“Otherwise, it’s not a bad policy. You know that now, local refiners are not yet meeting the national demand. So, if you put this kind of policy, yes, we know that it’s going to lead to the price, import price of petroleum products,” Gillis-Harry said.
When asked about the timing of the policy, considering the current suffering by the masses, he said he was not able to answer the government’s inner thinking of why the policy came up at this time.
He, however, said the policy was still for consultation and that such was ongoing now.
“So, that way, every stakeholder is part of the process and therefore obedience to the law becomes easier. I think, like I said, if you listen to my presentation on Tuesday at the OTL, you will discover that our concern is the future and how it will play out in the coming days, weeks and months,” he said.
The PETROAN boss warned that the country will get back to scarcity if government bans importation, arguing that local refinery was not producing sufficiently to safeguard the consumption or energy demands of Nigerians.
He added, “But at the end of the day, I think it’s just for us to test it first. Right now, we are not able to give any direct projection, we are not good at armchair projections.
“We like to see empirical computation and practical application of every single policy to see how it functions. So, we are looking forward to how that will happen as the policy is set to commence and then we will come out with our findings. Because at the end of the day, it’s PETROAN that is going to bear the brunt.
“We are the ones where the tire meets the road, where everyone looks forward to getting petroleum products to drive our energy and mobility needs. So, at this time, we do not see what is wrong. The government may have come up with a policy at a time that many people think is wrong.
“But these types of policies, they had better be put in place at any time. And then we will work to correct them as we advance. And I think that’s PETROAN’s official position.”
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