The senatorial candidate of the Africa Democratic Congress for Ebonyi South Senatorial Zone of Ebonyi State, Barr Silas Onu, says Nigeria’s regional politics will play a key role in determining who wins the 2027 presidential election.
Onu, who spoke in Enugu, explained that while Mr Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, and Atiku Abubakar of ADC have strong regional bases, President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress stands no chance to win the election despite having the majority of state governors as members of APC.
He said, “I have always told people that among the three candidates running for president, it is only Tinubu that doesn’t have a pathway to any victory. If we do regional analyses because politics in Nigeria always has ethnic colorations, you do not see a Tinubu controlling the Southwest. I see Lagos going crazy about him. We have seen videos where people in Lagos tear his posters. You feel the pulse of the people when you discuss with taxi drivers. If Tinubu is popular in the Southwest, he will not be appointing Gov Adeleke who is a member of Accord Party to be his state coordinator. He should be confident with his own political party members to be chairing his campaign in Osun.”
He predicted that Mr Obi would record resound victory in the Southeast while Atiku would get more votes in Northwest and Northeast. Quoting him, “I know, as a member of ADC, that it will be foolish for Atiku to think that he will defeat Peter Obi in the Southeast. It is also crazy for anyone to think that Obi will defeat Atiku in the Northeast and Northwest. Obi will be struggling to see what he could get from those places to add up to what he will get from the Southeast. South-South and Northcentral are free for all. All three candidates will get votes. Southwest is also free-for-all-zone because the president does not have the control of Southwest.”
He said Atiku lost the 2023 presidential election to Tinubu because some northern governors, including former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam el-Rufai, led the charge. “They took votes that ought to be Atiku’s and gave them to Tinubu. Tinubu got a lot of votes from the North that should have gone to Atiku. Imagine that Atiku got those northern votes in 2023, he would have won the election. The northerners have seen Tinubu. Remember in 2023, somehow Buhari supported Tinubu. There is no Buhari again to say go and support Tinubu. Those votes that went to Tinubu are coming back to him.”
He also said Obi’s factor would have no impact on Atiku’s votes. In his words, “I don’t know the people telling Obi that he has a huge support in the North. There are people who don’t even know Peter Obi in the North. Atiku introduced Obi to the North in 2019 when he took him as his running mate. Some northerners see Obi running against Atiku as a betrayal. There are people selling that narrative. Obi may have some supporters across northern states but they are so insignificant that it will make no difference for him.”
He said the Northcentral zone would be free for all the contestants. He predicted that Obi would do well in Benue, Plateau and Taraba, noting that Atiku would trail him closely. He also expressed fear that Obi’s supporters might be intimidated not to vote.
He said, “It will depend on whether Peter Obi’s supporters will come out to vote because what the government is trying to do is to discourage people from coming out to vote. That is why they claim to have won. They are not ashamed to say they are controlling the processes, and will write the results. How will one person say I will give you Rivers and Abuja? You can project, but not to give.”
