There is a Hausa commonsensical maxim that says: “Da na gaba ake gane zurfin ruwa.” Literally, this means that the depth of a river is best known from those who have crossed it earlier. In this political experiment, on one hand stands the PDP, which, except for divine intervention, has seemingly arrived at its final resting place and on the other hand stands the APC, the chief beneficiary of the PDP’s misfortunes. In a manner that may soon turn Nigeria into a one-party democracy, almost all opposition politicians, particularly state governors, are pitching their political tents with the ruling APC. Consequently, the party and its supporters are expectedly celebrating the PDP’s decline.
While this may appear politically expedient, it is equally important for the APC to look at PDP’s trajectory through the lens of history, and perhaps learn a lesson or two. Unlike the APC of today, the PDP was far stronger, more coordinated, and better organised during its heyday. As a result of its high organisational capacity, the PDP, from 1999 to around 2013, wielded almost total control of Nigeria’s political machinery. The party got virtually everything it wanted, except for Obasanjo’s third-term bid, which was defeated both from within and from without.
Also, compared to the situation today, where FCT Minister Nyesom Wike is allegedly playing a Tinubu card within a PDP consumed by internal wrangling, the APC has much to learn from the party that once boasted it would rule Nigeria for 60 years. When the PDP held sway, it did not go about destabilising opposition political parties in a hide-and-seek fashion. Opposition politics then was largely confined to the states. In Abuja, opposition parties existed more as symbols of identity than as real contenders for power. This created instances where party executives were at loggerheads with their own leaders or flag bearers.
Students of Nigeria’s political history will recall that at several points, governors of the defunct ANPP, the main opposition party at the time, often had conflicting interests with the late Muhammadu Buhari, the party’s two-time presidential flag bearer and the nation`s main opposition leader. The ANPP leadership and some of its governors openly fraternised with the PDP even when Buhari was in court challenging the latter’s 2003 presidential victory. This shows how President Obasanjo successfully infiltrated the opposition’s ranks and weakened its collective strength.
Moreover, when it held power, the PDP maintained a far more rewarding political system. Its card carrying members were far more loyal to the party than what is obtainable in the APC today. Membership of the PDP came with tangible benefits, appointments, contracts, and a sense of belonging, elements that helped to sustain the party’s structure across the country. The APC, on the other hand, is yet to develop a comparable internal system of reward and discipline. Its cohesion rests more on the influence of individuals than on institutional loyalty.
Therefore, the APC should not hastily celebrate the PDP’s collapse. Rather, it should reflect on how a once all powerful political machine was reduced to rubble within a short period. The same arrogance, internal divisions, and complacency that ruined the PDP could, in time, consume the APC if it fails to heed the lessons of history. In politics, the downfall of one party is not necessarily the rise of another, it is often a warning to all.
Mukhtar Jarmajo, Kukadi-Gundari Ward, Misau LGA, Bauchi State
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