Food security across the Middle East and North Africa is being squeezed from two directions – worsening climate impacts at home and mounting pressure on fragile, import-dependent supply chains, with the Strait of Hormuz emerging as the latest stress test.
As tankers queue and insurance premiums rise in the narrow waterway, governments from Cairo to Baghdad are scrambling to secure fuel, fertiliser and basic food supplies in markets already strained by years of drought, heatwaves and economic crises.
For trade specialist Jodie Keane of ODI Global, the current turmoil is not an isolated shock but a warning of how exposed the region has become to what she describes as a “green squeeze” – the collision between intensifying climate impacts and the growing costs and constraints of a turbulent green transition.
Speaking at a London event on food security and climate change, Keane told The New Arab that the Hormuz crisis had highlighted the urgent need for “more secure corridors” for food and fertiliser, more “resolute” long-term supply arrangements, and far greater investment in trade resilience to prevent local bread prices being dictated by a single maritime chokepoint.
Although the discussion focused on Ethiopia’s efforts to build a more resilient food system, its lessons resonate strongly across MENA’s highly import-dependent economies, where millions already struggle to afford enough to eat and each new disruption further tightens the squeeze.
MENA most impacted by worsening climate change
Analysts have long warned that the Middle East and North Africa is among the regions most vulnerable to climate change, experiencing accelerated warming, water scarcity, rising sea levels, and increasingly frequent and severe droughts, according to the Rabdan Security & Defence Institute.
A survey conducted by Arab Barometer in April 2026 found that at least half the populations of Syria, Tunisia, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and the occupied West Bank reported running out of food or being unable to afford more. In most other countries surveyed, including Iraq and Lebanon, at least a third of households said they had been forced to skip meals because of financial pressures.
The research network argues that this reflects not simply temporary hardship, but a wider structural crisis linked to low incomes, persistent inflation and weak social safety nets across the region.
Governments have increasingly introduced measures aimed at containing the economic fallout. In Egypt, for example, authorities have imposed restrictions on business hours and raised fuel prices in an effort to stabilise the economy.
Analysts warn, however, that such measures risk worsening pressure on vulnerable communities, as rising energy and transport costs feed directly into food prices and the wider cost of living.
Hormuz as a food-security chokepoint
Against this already fragile backdrop, the Hormuz crisis has triggered a fresh wave of imported inflation.
Much of the region remains heavily dependent on food imports, leaving it exposed to global market volatility that has intensified since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February, prompting Tehran to effectively close the strategic shipping route.
The Gulf region imports between 80-90% of its food needs, with around 70% of that trade estimated to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making regional food systems acutely vulnerable to any prolonged disruption.
Iraq is similarly exposed, importing an estimated 70% of its food supply while relying heavily on Iran for key staples such as wheat and dairy products. Analysts warn that existing climate stress and food insecurity could worsen significantly if cross-border trade disruptions continue.
Speakers at Tuesday’s London event discussed not only how food availability has come under strain since the regional war escalated, but also how agricultural markets worldwide are being affected by rising energy prices and uncertainty surrounding fuel and fertiliser supplies.
Edward Davey, head of the World Resources Institute in the UK, highlighted the direct impact Hormuz’s closure is having on global fertiliser supplies, particularly nitrogen-based products derived from natural gas, warning that this could deepen food insecurity in import-dependent economies.
For Keane and other speakers, the lesson from both the Gulf and the Horn of Africa is that MENA can no longer treat food security as a narrow agricultural issue or rely solely on temporary subsidies.
They argued that unless governments move beyond short-term fixes and invest in genuine trade and climate resilience, including diversifying supply routes and suppliers, investing in climate adaptation, and placing food security at the centre of economic planning, each new crisis will further deepen hardship for families already struggling to put food on the table.
