Stocks plunged, home prices held firm
According to ANAROCK, Dubai real estate stocks plunged as much as 34% at their peak during the conflict between February and April 2026.
In comparison, residential property prices fell only 4-7%, marking the widest gap between market sentiment and underlying asset performance recorded during any Dubai crisis.
The consultancy said average residential prices in the first half of 2026 stood at around AED 1,900 (around ₹44,300) per square foot, compared with AED 1,800 (around ₹42,000) per square foot during the same period last year, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase.
Residential sales remain robust
Dubai recorded more than 206,166 residential transactions worth AED 547 billion (around ₹12.7 lakh crore) in 2025, an 18% increase in transaction volumes from a year earlier. The total sales value rose nearly 26% year-on-year and was ten times higher than the AED 54 billion (around ₹1.3 lakh crore) recorded in 2020.
In the first half of 2026, residential transactions totalled AED 225.7 billion (around ₹5.3 lakh crore).
Dubai residential sales value (2019–H1 2026 | ANAROCK Research
According to ANAROCK, this represented a 15% increase compared with 2024 but was 16% lower than the exceptionally strong levels recorded in 2025. Off-plan properties continued to dominate activity, accounting for nearly 70-77% of all residential transactions during the period.
ANAROCK sees fundamentals supporting recovery
“The conflict early in 2026 tested Dubai’s residential market at a time when regional uncertainty was at its peak. In the months that followed, buyer activity returned steadily, prices remained resilient, and demand continued to be supported by strong structural fundamentals rather than speculative momentum,” said Aayush Puri, CEO – Residential, Middle East and CEO – ANAROCK Channel Partners (India).
“The recovery has been underpinned by robust market fundamentals. Dubai recorded AED 225.7 billion (around ₹5.3 lakh crore) worth of residential transactions in the first half of 2026, representing 15% growth against 2024 but dropping 16% against 2025. Moreover, off-plan transactions consistently accounted for nearly 70-77% of market activity throughout the period, highlighting sustained buyer confidence despite short-term uncertainty,” he added.
ANAROCK expects Dubai residential prices to rise another 4-7% during 2026, with the potential for gains of 8-13% if regional tensions continue to ease. However, the consultancy said renewed geopolitical conflict in the second half of the year remains the key downside risk for residential demand.
