LONDON, U.K.: Europe is facing growing concerns over jet fuel supply as shipments from the Middle East, its largest external source, effectively stopped in April, threatening a potential crunch ahead of the peak summer travel season.
The disruption comes as the war in Iran affects production and key shipping routes, cutting off a region that typically accounts for nearly 60 percent of Europe’s jet fuel imports from outside markets, according to Kpler data.
Europe’s reliance on imports makes it particularly vulnerable. Countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development consume about 1.6 million barrels per day of jet fuel and kerosene, while local refineries produce only around 1.1 million barrels per day. Imports must cover the shortfall of roughly 500,000 barrels.
So far in April, no jet fuel cargoes loaded from the Middle East are headed to Europe, the first such occurrence since Kpler began tracking the data in 2017. Overall imports are now set to fall to their lowest level in four years, even as Europe increases shipments from North America and Africa.
The International Energy Agency has warned that physical shortages could emerge as early as June if Europe can replace only half of the fuel it typically receives from the Middle East.
Despite the tightening market, industry players have downplayed immediate risks. Budget airline Wizz Air’s CEO said he did not expect shortages, echoing similar comments from British Airways parent IAG. Portuguese refiner Galp also said it does not anticipate supply disruptions before the holiday travel season.
However, some officials are more cautious. Sweden’s energy minister warned that while current supplies remain stable, shortages could develop later if disruptions persist.
Analysts say regional factors may provide short-term relief. Consultancy FGE NexantECA expects no shortage in the second quarter, citing higher refinery output. European refiners are already adjusting operations to maximize production of jet fuel and diesel, according to Energy Aspects.
Still, inventories remain tight. Societe Generale estimates that European Union jet fuel stocks covered just 37 days of demand at the end of last year and could fall closer to 30 days by the end of this year.
Prices reflect the strain. Jet fuel in Europe has climbed back above US$200 a barrel after easing from a record high of $228 in March. The increase has outpaced gains in crude oil, which has risen to near four-year highs amid the conflict.
If supply disruptions continue into the summer, analysts warn that Europe may have to rely more heavily on stockpiles, raising the risk of shortages during one of the year’s busiest travel periods.
