The disruption to supplies of fertiliser and its key ingredients due to the Iran war could cost up to 10 billion meals a week globally, the boss of one of the world’s biggest fertiliser producers has warned. Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, said that hostilities in the Gulf, which have blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are jeopardising global food production.
Reduced crop yields resulting from lower fertiliser use could trigger a bidding war for food, he warned, hitting the world’s poorest countries hardest. Mr Holsether has urged European nations to carefully consider the impact of a price war on the “most vulnerable” in other countries. While the UK is unlikely to face food shortages, higher costs for food producers are expected to start showing up in weekly food bills over the next few months.
“We’re up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now because of the situation we are in,” Mr Holsether told the BBC.
“What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers.”
He explained that not applying nitrogen fertiliser to crops would reduce some yields by as much as 50% in the first season.
The destinations that would see the “most immediate impact” of this would be in Asia, South East Asia, Africa and Latin America. Parts of the world where there is already under-fertilisation, such as several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, could see an even larger impact on crop yields, he added, saying “significant drops” were possible.
As planting seasons vary across the globe, the consequences of fertiliser shortages in Asia will not be reflected in food prices until the end of the year, when harvests that should have been planted this spring come in smaller than expected, or not at all, according to analysts.
According to the United Nations, around a third of the world’s fertilisers – such as urea, potash, ammonia and phosphates – normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of fertiliser has soared by 80% since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
In the UK, the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) recently forecast that food inflation could reach 10% by December. The Bank of England this week said it expected food price inflation to rise to 4.6% in September and could rise further later in the year.
The UN World Food Programme estimates that the combined fallout from the Middle East conflict could push 45 million additional people into acute hunger in 2026. In Asia and the Pacific, food insecurity is expected to rise by 24% – the largest relative increase of any region.
