Could undersea cables – the sinews of the global internet – become the next frontier in the US-Israel war against Iran?
Last week, two Iranian state-linked media channels, Tasnim and Fars, suggested Iran could leverage its power over the strait of Hormuz, the 25-mile (40km) stretch between Iran and Oman, by charging US tech companies to use the internet cables that traverse the strait. Tasnim implied this could be a lucrative proposition, netting Iran hundreds of millions of dollars each year.
At least seven cables lie beneath the waters of the strait, many of them vital to the massive AI buildout under way in Gulf countries. But what exactly is Iran proposing, and is it a realistic course of action?
What has Iran said it will do?
Tasnim’s proposal, as it is written, has three parts: first, charge foreign companies’ licence fees to use the subsea cables, second, require “technology giants” (it names Meta, Google, Amazon and Microsoft) to “operate under the laws of the Islamic Republic of Iran”, which probably implies joint ventures, and, third, monopolise the repair and maintenance of these subsea cables, presumably charging the world for these services. This will “transform the strait of Hormuz into a strategic hub for the generation of legitimate wealth”, it says.
All of this, says Tasnim, is legally justified by article 34 of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. This, it says, allows Iran to claim a part of the seabed of the strait of Hormuz as its territory, even as the surface waters are used for international navigation.
Do any other countries do this?
Not in the same way. Iranian media pointed at the examples of Egypt, which, according to Tasnim, generates between $250m and $400m annually by charging fees on subsea cables. Egypt does charge fees on cables that cross its territory, and in some cases jointly owns and operates these cables through Telecom Egypt. Its revenue figures for this are not public, although they are estimated to be a significant portion of Telecom Egypt’s total income. The difference, however, is that the cables in question actually pass through the territory of Egypt, said Doug Madory, an expert in internet infrastructure at Kentik. In fact, many of them cross Egypt overland, alongside highways and oil pipelines.
Can Iran actually charge fees on undersea cables, and how would that work?
Highly doubtful. From the legal perspective, there are sanctions considerations, said a former US state department official specialising in the global internet. It also would be impossible to charge specific companies, as there is no way to separate out their internet traffic.
Most of the cables in question do not terminate in Iran; they pass under the sea, miles offshore. “The only way they could extract tolls for ships or submarine cables is through threats,” said Madory. “That is not something we have seen before.”
How easy would it be for Iran to cut these subsea cables? “A suicide mission,” said Madory. News stories abound about suspicious cable cuts in the Baltic Sea and the Red Sea, some suggesting that slicing subsea cables might be a future wartime tactic for the Houthis, Russia or China. However, Madory said many of these stories are “hyperbolic.” Most cable cuts are likely to be the result of accidents – dragging anchors – and not intentional sabotage. As for Iran, it is very unlikely that it could cut cables under the strait of Hormuz unnoticed; it simply does not have the technology. It would have to do so overtly, under constant US air patrols.
What would be the consequences of a cable cut in the strait of Hormuz?
Such a cut would be disruptive to internet traffic in the Gulf – but might not have great impact on the rest of global connectivity. This is because the cables under the strait of Hormuz mostly just service Gulf countries, said Madory – unlike the cables that run through the Suez and Egypt, which carry much significant traffic between Europe and Asia. Iraq and Iran, for example, have alternative overland cables they can use for connection.
In theory, a subsea cable cut could be easily remedied. Cable cuts happen all the time; there are a few each week, said Madory, and over a dozen repair ships are constantly at work around the world repairing the cables. However, if Iran were to threaten those repair ships, they might not take the risk: “Cable repair ships do not operate under fire.” That could make the disruption more long-lasting.
