The study drew on data from the Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2022/23, the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2024, and Armed Conflict Location and Event Data covering 2010 to 2025.
A new study has found that violent conflict across Northern Nigeria is not only pushing households deeper into poverty but is also weakening their ability to recover, creating a cycle that leaves many families trapped in long-term deprivation.
The report, “Insecurity, Livelihoods and Welfare in Northern Nigeria”, identified three dominant forms of insecurity shaping welfare outcomes across the region; Boko Haram/Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) insurgency in the North-east, farmer-herder conflict in the North-central, and banditry and kidnapping in the North-west.
While these conflicts differ in nature, researchers found that all three drive poverty through distinct pathways by undermining incomes, destroying assets, disrupting markets and deepening vulnerability.
The findings were presented during a webinar organised by the Chronic Poverty Advisory Network (CPAN) of the Institute of Development Studies, United Kingdom, the Development Research and Projects Centre (dRPC), and the Strengthening Peace and Resilience in Nigeria (SPRiNG) project, with support from the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).
Presenting the findings, CPAN Deputy Director Vidya Diwakar said the research examined the two-way relationship between insecurity and household welfare, showing how conflict deepens poverty while poverty can also increase households’ vulnerability to insecurity.
The study drew on data from the Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2022/23, the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2024, and Armed Conflict Location and Event Data covering 2010 to 2025.
Researchers also conducted extensive fieldwork through 60 life-history interviews, 12 focus group discussions, 15 key informant interviews and 20 Delphi-method crisis focus group discussions.
According to the report, Boko Haram and ISWAP violence in the North-east had the largest and most consistent welfare effects among the three conflict types.
Households in areas that experienced attacks within two years before the survey recorded expenditure levels between eight and 14 per cent lower per adult equivalent, while conflict debt accumulated since 2009 was associated with an additional welfare loss of between eight and 13 per cent.
In the North-central region, farmer-herder violence had its greatest impact on near-poor households, with researchers recording a 14 per cent drop in expenditure at the 60th percentile, the largest single welfare effect identified in the study.
Meanwhile, in the North-west, banditry and kidnapping resulted in expenditure losses of between four and 11 per cent, with the strongest effects recorded among moderately poor households.
The findings add to growing concerns over the economic consequences of insecurity in Northern Nigeria, where attacks on farming communities, mass displacement and recurring violence have contributed to declining livelihoods and food shortages in recent years.
PREMIUM TIMES has extensively reported how insurgency in the North-east, farmer-herder clashes in the North-central region and bandit attacks in the North-west have displaced thousands of residents, forced farmers from their farmlands and disrupted agricultural production across some of Nigeria’s key food-producing areas.
Investigations by PREMIUM TIMES have also documented how insecurity has worsened hunger, increased humanitarian needs and undermined development efforts in affected communities.
Despite the grim findings, the researchers identified livelihood diversification as the most consistent factor helping households withstand the effects of conflict.
According to the report, households that combined farming with off-farm work, small businesses or other enterprise activities were better able to build resilience and avoid chronic poverty regardless of the type of insecurity affecting their communities.
The study described diversification as the single strongest protective factor across all three conflict settings. However, only 13 per cent of household heads in Northern Nigeria were found to be actively diversifying their sources of income.
Researchers also found that education improves households’ capacity to diversify their livelihoods.
The benefits, however, remain weaker for women- and youth-headed households, which account for 28.9 per cent of households in the region.
The report noted that these groups continue to face greater barriers to economic opportunities despite being among those most affected by conflict and poverty.
Reviewing the findings, Ukoha Ukiwo, Team Lead of SPRiNG; Julie Sanda, Director of the Plateau State Peace Building Agency, and Abba Waziri of the Office of the Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Chieftaincy Matters, emphasised the importance of linking peace-building efforts with livelihood support.
The discussants argued that rebuilding livelihoods is essential for sustaining peace and helping conflict-affected households recover from poverty.
They highlighted what they noted as the peace-work nexus, stating that economic recovery and peace-building must be pursued simultaneously.
Mr Waziri particularly highlighted the role of traditional institutions, calling for greater investment in training traditional leaders to support peace-building initiatives and conflict prevention efforts in affected communities.
Speaking at the webinar, the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction, Bernard Doro, reflected on the implications of the findings for the federal government’s One Humanitarian, One Poverty Response System (OHOPRS).
The initiative, he said, seeks to coordinate humanitarian and poverty-reduction interventions through a framework built around “one system, one register and one pathway.”
In his closing remarks, Mr Doro pledged continued collaboration between government and stakeholders and challenged the research community to generate further evidence on targeting, sequencing and graduation pathways under the programme, particularly for women and young people who are often left behind in poverty-reduction interventions.
The Executive Director of dRPC, Judith-Ann Walker, thanked the FCDO for supporting the research and commended Mr Doro for his commitment to engaging with evidence-based findings on poverty and conflict.
She also praised the minister’s open-door policy and his engagement with the humanitarian assistance community around the implementation of OHOPRS.
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