The US and Iran are expected to sign an interim arrangement in the coming days under which Iran will commit to handing over its enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In return, the US has agreed to release $20 billion in frozen funds belonging to the Iranian regime.
According to diplomatic sources familiar with the talks, the breakthrough came after the Americans closed the strait to Iranian tankers. Iran said that if the US did not lift its blockade, it would once again close the strait. Trump said that until an arrangement is reached, the strait will remain closed to Iranian tankers.
Under the understandings, Iran will be allowed to retain civilian nuclear facilities, but only under full supervision and above ground. There will be no restoration of enrichment facilities, although no decision has yet been made on the length of time for which uranium enrichment will be banned. At this stage, the US is not lifting sanctions on Iran and is making any change in that policy conditional on Iran accepting the American terms on the disputed issues.
The source said the contacts were mediated by the Pakistani army chief and that draft agreements are awaiting approval by the sides before they convene a meeting to finalize the remaining details.
Iran has reached the brink of insolvency, and its central bank governor warned that within a matter of weeks the state treasury would be completely depleted, making it impossible to pay salaries or purchase food and medicine abroad. In the US, officials are convinced that this situation led the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to accept the terms of the interim arrangement.
At the same time, the diplomatic source made clear that the disagreements on other issues remain unresolved, and that Iran refuses to discuss its support for regional terrorist organizations and limits on its missile project. Iran apparently hopes that the interim arrangement will drag on and that Trump will find it very difficult to return to fighting in order to secure his demands on those issues.
