BY JOSHUA OCHEJA
I recently returned to the archives to watch an old video of President Bola Tinubu during his tenure as governor of Lagos State. It was a state broadcast. What struck me wasn’t just the rhetoric but the gesticulations. They painted a picture of arrogance. However, it did not exhibit the vanity that is typical of the Nigerian political class. It was an “arrogance of thrift”.
In our clime, political arrogance is usually wasteful. Tinubu’s is different. It is calculated. This is the attitude of a man who intuitively sifts his words before speaking.
Buy One, Get One Free” (BOGOF)
Have we noticed that Tinubu does not seek affection? In November 2022, during the heat of the 2023 presidential campaign, he once stated that “I don’t read social media anymore; they abuse the hell out of me. If I read it, my blood pressure will go up and I will get angry.” This comment, as usual, generated controversies, but it didn’t determine the outcome of the 2023 presidential elections.
In my previous article, “The Knife and Yam”, I used the “Knife and Yam” as a metaphor to describe how Tinubu holds the aces politically in Nigeria. Before he became president, he was already controlling the political space but without a grand title. As I wrote then, “Long before 2023, Tinubu held yams in his barns, and they were open to any politician willing to slice, regardless of party affiliation. He wasn’t being charitable; he was interested in the hand that held the knife. By 2023, he secured it.”
Today, state governors are not just trooping to the APC because of a sudden ideological shift. They are chasing the Tinubu “Buy One, Get One Free” (BOGOF) promo. If a governor delivers his state to the APC at the presidential election, it is “buy one”, and the governor’s re-election is also secured; this is “get one free”. This is the “promo package” on offer for the 2027 general election.
The Afenifere leverage
There is perhaps something about Tinubu that is not necessarily in the public space. Who is Tinubu’s political godfather? Some have argued that he was groomed by MKO Abiola. Tinubu might have been an admirer and shared some political ties with MKO Abiola. Such cannot pass for a mentor/mentee relationship. I can argue that he recognised Obafemi Awolowo’s golden place in the politics of the southwest region. He adopted a similar patten of Awolowo’s signature round eye frame. They were not contemporaries and no historical account of Tinubu relating with Awolowo physically.
He was also in the good books of Abraham Adesanya and Ayo Adebanjo. Both men belonged to a group often referred to as the “Ijebu Mafia”, and they were diehard Awoists. Adesanya was a member of Awolowo’s legal team during his treason trial. Adebanjo was also charged with a felony alongside Awolowo. These men were the face of Afenifere.
After the death of Sani Abacha in 1998, core Awoists like Abraham Adesanya, Ayo Adebanjo and Bola Ige played a great role in the formation of the AD. And Afenifere easily passed for a decider on who gets what and how in the Southwest.
A historical account stated that it was Abraham Adesanya and Ayo Adebanjo that endorsed Tinubu’s bid for governor of Lagos State on the platform of the AD. Interestingly, Kofo Bucknor-Akerele, who later became Tinubu’s deputy, also contested the primaries. There was a first primary that was allegedly won by Funsho Williams, but was cancelled due to violence in some local government areas. The AD constitution was explicit about results from conflict areas. There is an account that stated that “the powerful Afenifere bloc wanted Tinubu and the circumstances surrounding his emergence has remained unanswered”. Bucknor-Akerele’s emergence as Tinubu’s running mate also followed the same Afenifere influence pattern.
The NADECO advantage
The growing discontent that heralded the annulment of the 1993 presidential elections was an opportunity for Tinubu to join forces with the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO).
Tinubu won elections under the Social Democratic Party (SDP) as a senator representing Lagos West Senatorial District in 1992. Afenifere boycotted the transition programme of General Sani Abacha, insisting on the validation of the MKO Abiola mandate. Afenifere and NADECO became united in purpose. This was a twin advantage for Tinubu. He was also resourceful and provided substantial funds for the operations of NADECO. That made him a democrat. He also had great influence in the media, and used it to amplify NADECO.
The pressure group became a thorn in the flesh of the military junta because of the role played by TheNews/Tempo magazine. Bayo Onanuga, Babafemi Ojudu, and Dapo Olorunyomi were the engine room at TheNews/Tempo. They also recruited some young witty journalists and they introduced the concept of guerrilla journalism. Some of these men have remained with Tinubu to date.
Tinubu also associated with Radio Kudirat whose objectives aligned with that of NADECO. Kayode Fayemi and others did a great work with Radio Kudirat. The military junta could not silence the radio station. It was thus easy for Tinubu to be counted among those that fought for the restoration of democracy in 1999.
Emi lo kan
Tinubu is a “prince of virtu.” Niccolò Machiavelli, in his work “The Prince”, argued about how “princes” rise and fall. He identified two classes of princes. The “prince of fortuna and the prince of virtu”. A “prince of fortuna is one that is elevated by the blessings or the convenience of a powerful predecessor”. Machiavelli warns that such leaders have an easy rise but a hard fall, because their power depends entirely on someone else’s goodwill.
A “prince of virtu is one who rises to the top by his skills and influence”. Machiavelli also warned that such leaders might have a hard and long ride to the top, but when they do, they stay longer and make fewer compromises.
Tinubu remains the first politician who appears to have worked his way to the top in an unprecedented manner in our post-colonial history. Tinubu’s rise to power is beyond common opinion on how politicians play the game in our clime.
Initially, it was a confusing trajectory that seemed impossible. I remember how the phrase “Emi lo kan” (It is my turn) began. He made the remark in address to delegates of the APC at the Presidential Lodge in Abeokuta, Ogun State, ahead of the party’s presidential primary election.
He gave a trajectory on how he supported Buhari after several failed attempts, the rejection of the offer to be running mate to Buhari and his nomination of Yemi Osinbajo.
He said he told Buhari that he had served him very well and it was his turn (Emi lo Kan). This is what happens when you are a “prince of virtu”.
In the Machiavellian sense, “virtu” is not about morality; it’s about skill, agency, and the strategic use of resources. In 2027, Tinubu would be up against those he had previously transacted with politically. Will he once again prove to be the “prince of virtu”?
Ocheja, PhD, an alumnus of the Nigerian Defence Academy, is a military historian and creative writer. He is the author of “The Knife and Yam” (2026)
