When China’s special envoy to the Middle East recently gave a colorful account of a dangerous overland journey through a war zone, it was a departure from the bland language and boilerplate peace plans often used by the country’s diplomats.
“Airspace closures in some of the countries we visited led to flight cancellations, forcing us to travel by car. Along the way, we heard air raid sirens and witnessed missile interceptions,” Zhai Jun told reporters in Beijing in late March, according to China Daily, the English-language mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party.
This account could not be independently confirmed, but Zhai’s trip through Persian Gulf countries highlighted China’s intense interest in a swift end to the US-Israeli war with Iran — and the uncharted territory that it represents for Beijing.
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Since then, the US blockade of Iran may have further sharpened the country’s desire to calm tensions, reopen shipping, and resume trade flows.Commentsfrom US President Donald Trump himself suggested a last-minute push from China led to Iran’s decision to accept a two-week cease-fire proposal brokered by Pakistan.
Reports fromThe New York TimesandThe Washington Post, citing Iranian officials, also point to Chinese pressure behind the scenes to urge Tehran to pull back from escalation.
But while China is probably Iran’s most important ally, it may lack the full diplomatic and economic leverage to force Tehran to make concessions, according to experts who spoke to RFE/RL.It also may be hesitant to act as a meaningful mediator for a peace deal.
The Levers Don’t Work
On paper, China has an array of levers to pull on Iran as part of an attempt to push it to the negotiating table.
It buys some 90 percent of the country’s oil and sells Iran many products. In 2024, this included vehicle engines and parts, medical equipment, metals, textiles, sunflower seeds, and chemicals, according to Harvard University’sAtlas of Economic Complexity. Given Iran’s heavily sanctioned economy, these ties are a crucial economic lifeline for Iran.
