For Turkey, the US-Israeli war on Iran is no distant commotion. It is an international crisis unfolding on its doorstep that leaves Ankara in a difficult place.
The Turkish response has been careful, balanced, and logical. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Washington and Tel Aviv’s launch of Operation Epic Fury against Iran on 28 February, denouncing the strikes in strong terms while expressing solidarity with Iranian victims.
At the same time, Turkey has been equally clear in condemning Tehran’s missile and drone attacks against military and civilian targets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member-states in response to the American-Israeli campaign. Ankara has signalled its rejection of escalation on all sides while navigating the perilous dynamics of a conflict that threatens regional and global stability.
Turkey initially sought to avert this conflict, joining Oman, Qatar, Egypt, and other regional actors in attempting to persuade US President Donald Trump to resolve tensions with Iran through diplomacy, not war. Yet Ankara now faces the stark reality of an escalating conflict it tried to thwart.
So far, Turkey has sought to maintain neutrality, leveraging its diplomatic influence to push for rapid de-escalation. In recent days, Turkish, Egyptian, Saudi, and Pakistani channels have played a particularly crucial role in intensified efforts to bring the war to a swift resolution.
However, understanding Turkey’s stance on this conflict requires considering multiple factors. Although the Turkish leadership firmly opposes the American-Israeli war on Iran and stands in defence of Iranian sovereignty, there is some nuance, as Turkish foreign ministry officials have “vaguely suggested that Iran brought this on itself,” explained Batu Coşkun, a political analyst at the Sadeq Institute, in an interview with The New Arab.
At the same time, with Ankara increasingly concerned about further destabilisation in the Gulf and the war’s impact on energy prices, “there is now a Turkish effort counselling restraint to friendly governments in the GCC in an effort to contain the war,” Coşkun noted.
“We shouldn’t forget that Turkey has a permanent military base in Qatar and varying defence links with all Arab Gulf governments,” he added.
“Turkey’s most significant interest here is to prevent the war from dragging on further, to forestall the emergence of energy crisis corridors, to prevent regional states from bearing an excessive economic burden, and beyond all this, to preserve its relations with the United States, Iran, and the Gulf states in the postwar period,” Dr Gökhan Ereli, an independent researcher, told The New Arab.
Iranian state collapse is Ankara’s nightmare
Officials in Ankara are deeply concerned about the consequences if Iran descends further into chaos. Sharing a 502-kilometre border with its neighbour, Turkey fears state fragmentation and the emergence of new power vacuums.
Ankara is particularly wary of armed Kurdish factions in Iran gaining greater autonomy or even achieving independence. Such developments could exacerbate political and social tensions in Turkey, especially concerning the country’s sensitive Kurdish minority issues.
“The unrest that could be triggered by armed Kurdish groups or radical groups in Iran – and potentially spread across the region – poses the biggest danger for Turkey. For this reason, Turkey does not prefer a scenario in which Iran becomes so weakened by war that it is dragged into an internal crisis,” Dr Pınar Dost, a non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council Turkey Program and Türkiye Today columnist, told TNA.
Officials in Ankara are rightly concerned that a potential collapse of the Iranian state could make Turkey the primary destination for refugees. During the 2010s, millions of Syrians arrived in Turkey, placing significant economic, social, and security pressures on the country.
With Iran’s population far larger than Syria’s, Ankara recognises that an Iranian refugee crisis could be far more massive and complex than anything Turkey faced during the Syrian influx.
Counting the cost: Economic ripples of the war
The war on Iran is straining Turkey’s economy, driving up inflation and prompting foreign investors to withdraw billions from Turkish assets. Surging energy prices and supply concerns, reminiscent of the 1970s oil shocks, are exacerbating the current account deficit, which could reach $35 billion if high prices persist.
The central bank has intervened aggressively, halting rate cuts and spending billions in reserves to stabilise markets, while the government has revived fuel tax measures to shield consumers. At the same time, Turkey’s tourism industry, particularly in the country’s eastern and southeastern regions, has suffered.
“The main concern for so many economies is the spike in oil and natural gas prices. Turkey imports a huge percentage of its oil and much of its natural gas, though it does now have a significant natural gas production and expanding oil production, but at this time, the lion’s share of its oil…is imported. So as global prices go up, that increases inflation in Turkey,” noted Matthew Bryza, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, in a TNA interview.
Inflation has remained persistently high over the past several years. Four years ago, it surged to a 24-year high of 83 percent, and although it has since fallen to approximately 32 percent, it remains painfully elevated, placing a heavy burden on countless Turkish families and businesses.
“So the Iran war’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is leading to severely decreased oil and gas production in the Gulf and of course exports, will hurt the Turkish economy like elsewhere,” added Bryza, who also explained that this war is curtailing the exports of fertilisers, minerals, and products important fertilizer production such as sulphur and urea, which will have a negative impact on the agricultural sector in Turkey and countries worldwide.
Turkey’s diplomacy in action
Given its deep stakes in the conflict, it is understandable that Turkey has joined Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan in seeking to play a central diplomatic role in ending the war. All four countries share a unique position in these negotiations.
Their leaders maintain close personal ties with Trump, which carries particular weight given his leadership style. Turkey and Pakistan share land borders with Iran and maintain relatively stable relations with Tehran, while the purported Iranian missile strikes on Turkey on 4, 9, and 13 March did not escalate into a crisis – thanks in part to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s denial of Iranian involvement and both countries’ shared interest in preserving bilateral ties amid a widening regional war.
Alongside these influential Islamic powers, Turkey aims to persuade the Trump administration that prolonging the war will only generate more problems for Washington. One clear example is the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, Iran did not control the passage, but a goal of the ongoing campaign is now to secure it.
Ankara seeks to convey that dragging out the war will create further complications for US interests, making it in Washington’s best interest to declare victory quickly and begin winding down the conflict.
“In the days, weeks, and months ahead, the importance of mediation efforts will grow. As traditional [mediators in the GCC] have been rendered into parties to the war by Iran, the vacuum they leave may well be filled by regional states such as Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt,” Dr Ereli told TNA.
No winners, only risks
Turkey’s careful navigation of the US-Israel-Iran war underscores the complex calculus of a nation caught between principle and pragmatism.
Ankara’s balanced stance, which has entailed condemning aggression on all sides while pursuing de-escalation, reflects a recognition that the conflict poses extremely serious threats to regional and global stability, economic security, and Turkey’s own national interests.
From preventing a potential Iranian state collapse to averting massive refugee flows and mitigating energy shocks, Turkey sees this war producing no winners. Ankara’s active diplomacy, in concert with other influential countries in the Islamic world, highlights Turkey’s determination to leverage influence for a swift resolution, while maintaining relations with key regional and global powers.
At the end of the day, Turkey’s approach, which rests on strategic foresight, measured diplomacy, and a commitment to mediation, offers the only realistic path to restoring relative stability to the conflict-plagued Middle East.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero
Edited by Charlie Hoyle
