The survey also revealed declining confidence in electoral institutions, with only 34 per cent of respondents expressing confidence in INEC ahead of the 2027 elections.
A new voter intention survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed a wide gap between Nigerians’ stated intention to vote in the 2027 general elections and their actual commitment to participating in the polls.
The findings were presented in the third edition of Yiaga Africa’s National Voter Intention Survey (NVIS 3.0) at a policy roundtable on voting intentions ahead of the 2027 general elections in Abuja on Wednesday.
The survey was designed to assess voter interest and participation and identify factors that could encourage or discourage Nigerians from taking part in the elections.
According to Yiaga Africa, 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory participated in the September 2026 survey.
Of the respondents, 2,066 were interviewed by telephone, while 404 were interviewed face-to-face, particularly in rural communities.
The Senior Manager and Head of Knowledge Management and Learning at Yiaga Africa, Safiya Bichi, said the mixed approach ensured that people without access to telephones, especially those in rural communities, were not excluded.
“Over 2,400 people were surveyed. We used a mixed method where we used telephone lines and traditional surveys to reach out to people and administer the survey questions,” Ms Bichi said.
She said the survey was intended to provide a broader picture of Nigerians’ attitudes towards the 2027 elections.
Ms Bichi said the 84 per cent intention to vote recorded in the latest survey did not necessarily translate into a firm commitment to participate in the election.
“84 per cent of citizens said they intended to vote, but only 41 per cent are committed to vote in this election,” she said.
She explained that a significant proportion of those who said they intended to vote had not yet decided which candidate they would support.
According to her, 44 per cent of the 84 per cent who said they intended to vote had not yet settled on their preferred candidates.
This, she said, presents political parties and candidates with a large pool of voters who could still change their preferences before the election.
She also said between six per cent and 10 per cent of respondents were either disinterested or undecided about participating in the election.
The latest figure represents an increase in overall voter intention compared with the first two rounds of the survey.
Yiaga Africa said 77 per cent of respondents indicated that they were likely to vote in the first NVIS, conducted in December, while the figure dropped to 73 per cent in the second survey before rising to 84 per cent in the third round.
However, the survey showed that the proportion of respondents who were “very likely” to vote has continued to decline.
According to the organisation, 52 per cent of respondents in the first survey said they were very likely to vote. That figure fell to 48 per cent in the second survey and 47 per cent in the third.
Ms Bichi said the difference suggested that although more Nigerians expressed an intention to vote, their certainty about actually participating in the election remained a concern.
Insecurity emerged as one of the most significant threats to voter participation.
The survey found that 61 per cent of respondents feared that violence could prevent them from voting.
The concern was particularly pronounced in the North-East, where 78 per cent of respondents identified violence as a potential barrier to voting.
The survey also found that 82 per cent of respondents were very concerned that insecurity could affect the conduct of the elections.
The findings point to a dual concern among voters: fear of violence during the electoral process and doubts about the ability of security agencies to protect voters.
Only 48 per cent of respondents said they trusted security agencies to protect their votes during the elections.
Ms Bichi said improved security remained the strongest factor likely to motivate Nigerians to participate in the 2027 elections.
According to the survey, 83 per cent of respondents said improved security would motivate them to vote.
Another factor, 38 per cent of respondents identified as better logistics, while 20 per cent cited stronger candidates.
Ms Bichi said security and the quality of candidates had remained among the major factors influencing voter participation across the three rounds of the survey.
