According to the report, consumers across the country are responding in similar ways: buying in smaller quantities, substituting fresh produce with dried or processed alternatives, and reducing portions.
The national average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice in Nigeria rose from N25,798 in July 2025 to N29,578 in June 2026, an increase of 14.6 per cent, according to a new survey.
This was disclosed in the SBM Intelligence Jollof Index Q2 2026 report, titled: “Rebasing, Redefining, and the Weather’s Toll on the Pot”.
SBM Intelligence, a data analytics and research firm, stated that it rebased the index in the July edition to a higher standard as of July 2025 and introduced re-standardised ingredient measures.
According to the report, the index now more accurately captures how households navigate the current affordability crisis.
The study collected monthly price data on 12 key ingredients: rice, vegetable oil, turkey or chicken, beef, tomatoes, pepper, onions, tinned tomatoes, salt, curry, thyme, and seasoning cubes from 13 markets across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.
The markets include Nyanya and Wuse II (North Central), Bauchi (North East), Kano (North West), Awka and Onitsha (South East), Port Harcourt, Calabar Municipal, and Bayside Mbakpa (South South), and Bodija, Dugbe, Trade Fair, and Balogun (South West).
The report stated that the upward trajectory in the cost of jollof rice since July 2025 was non-linear, with prices dipping in September and October 2025 before accelerating from November through the first half of 2026.
It revealed that the index has risen from N4,087 in July 2016 to N29,578 in June 2026, a staggering 624 per cent increase over 10 years.
“The data confirms that food inflation is not a cyclical phenomenon but a structural crisis, embedded in Nigeria’s failure to secure supply chains, stabilise its currency, invest in agricultural resilience, and now adapt to a changing climate,” the SBM survey stated.
Throughout the second quarter of 2026, Nigeria’s agricultural supply chain has been gripped by a compounding crisis driven by extreme weather patterns and structural logistical failures, the report stated.
From April through June, reports from urban markets across the country, Port Harcourt, Calabar, Onitsha, Lagos, Ibadan, Bauchi, Kano, and Abuja, revealed a consistent pattern of food scarcity and sharp price volatility.
Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s food inflation stood at 17.52 per cent on a year-on-year basis in June.
“The crisis has been most acute for perishable crops, particularly tomatoes and peppers, but its reach has extended to staples such as yams, plantains, garri, and even grains.
“Across every region, the story is the same: heavy rains have flooded roads, damaged farmland, delayed harvests, and driven up transport costs. Consumers are adapting, but their options are narrowing,” the report stated.
According to the report, consumers across the country are responding in similar ways: buying in smaller quantities, substituting fresh produce with dried or processed alternatives, and reducing portions.
“But these are coping strategies, not solutions,” the report added.
The gap between Nigeria’s cheapest and most expensive markets has widened to N14,700.
According to the SBM report, Calabar Municipal is the most expensive market to cook a pot of jollof rice at N34,750, while Awka is the cheapest at N22,050.
“The most expensive markets are either in the South South (where protein costs and import restrictions have surged) or in Lagos (the import gateway).
“The cheapest markets are in the South-east, which has benefited from local farming and shorter supply chains,” the report stated.
In North-central, ingredient prices at Abuja’s two markets, Nyanya and Wuse II, rose significantly.
Over the year to June 2026, Nyanya rose from N24,300 to N25,450, a modest 4.7 per cent increase, while Wuse II climbed from N28,150 to N29,200, a 3.7 per cent increase.
The report stated that Abuja’s food economy is fundamentally distorted by its dependence on distant supply corridors.
“Every grain of rice, every tomato, every onion must travel from Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Niger, or beyond.
“When diesel prices surge, when insecurity blocks roads, when checkpoints multiply, or when heavy rains flood roads, Abuja’s markets feel it first and most acutely,” the report stated.
In the North-east, Bauchi recorded the most dramatic price movement of any market. The index fell from N38,850 in July 2025 to N32,350 by June 2026, a 16.7 per cent decline.
This correction followed a period of hyperinflation in mid-2025, during which Bauchi’s index peaked above N41,000.
“The decline reflects a combination of factors: a localised influx of early harvest yields, a collapse in demand as prices became unsustainable, and some improvement in supply routes,” the report stated.
In the North-west region, Kano’s Jollof Index rose from N24,520 in July 2025 to N25,820 in June 2026, a 5.3 per cent increase.
The modest rise showed a deeper reality because Kano’s index has been structurally expensive for years, driven by high protein costs and logistical challenges in moving goods into the region.
