The next meeting between Israel and Lebanon will most likely take place as early as next week in Washington, according to Israeli and American diplomatic sources. Under that framework, the second meeting will map out the issues for discussion, chiefly border demarcation and the economic and civilian aspects of a possible agreement.
The issue of Hezbollah and its disarmament is only supposed to come up as a point of reference, but discussion of it is taking place at the highest political level. An announcement on the next step is waiting for a reduction in the intensity of the fighting, which is expected in the coming days.
At the previous meeting, as reported by Israel Hayom, the Americans raised several options for lowering the intensity of the fighting in order to create a positive atmosphere for the talks. The outline currently on the table is a return to the pattern of strikes that existed before the start of the war, in line with the terms of the November 2024 agreement, while continuing operations in southern Lebanon.
The IDF will not withdraw from the area, and notably Lebanon did not demand that, at least not immediately. Israel is linking Hezbollah’s disarmament, as set out in the November 2024 agreement, to an Israeli military withdrawal and a full ceasefire. That means the IDF will continue operating against Hezbollah targets that pose an immediate threat, including deep inside Lebanese territory, and will have complete freedom of action in the area south of the Litani River.
Lebanon is, however, asking Israel not to strike civilian infrastructure anywhere in the country, including in southern Lebanon. Israel’s response was that the targets being attacked are those that help Hezbollah operate.
Regional framework and economic pressure
According to the diplomatic sources, in the meetings after the next one the level of the talks is expected to rise, with the aim of reaching a full peace agreement between the countries, even if it only comes fully into force after Hezbollah has been dealt with.
There is another aspect as well: Lebanon is in a severe economic crisis that has been worsening for more than 13 years. An agreement with Israel and a dramatic weakening of Hezbollah’s power and influence are expected to bring back international investment. Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, support the negotiations and are assisting them behind the scenes, and are expected to take part in rebuilding the country, if and when that happens.
In Iran, there is a significant chance that the ceasefire, which is due to expire next week, will be extended, but with the strait remaining closed. According to diplomatic sources in the region, the US refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as Iran does not remove its blockade.
What is therefore taking shape is the possibility of an extension of the ceasefire and probably a renewal of the negotiations, but under tight economic pressure that is bringing Iran’s economy, or what remains of it, to collapse. According to data from Iran’s central bank, the government’s cash reserves will be enough only for the coming weeks, after which salary payments, debt payments and payments to suppliers in Iran and abroad will stop entirely.
The Iranian political leadership therefore defines reaching understandings with the US as an existential necessity. The leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, headed by Mohammad Vahidi, is still trying to project a hard line, even if it is unrealistic.
