The Federal Government has reaffirmed Nigeria’s ambition to attain investment-grade sovereign credit rating by 2030, saying stronger public finances, sustainable debt levels, economic diversification, higher productivity and credible institutions will be critical to achieving the target.
The Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, stated this on Thursday at the 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar organised by DataPro Limited, stressing that investment-grade status should be the outcome of stronger economic fundamentals rather than an objective pursued in isolation.
According to her, Nigeria’s credit-rating ambition is closely linked to the implementation of the National Development Plan 2026–2030, which seeks to build a more diversified, resilient and globally competitive economy while laying the foundation for a US$1tn economy by 2030.
Uzoka-Anite said sovereign credit ratings go beyond assessments of a country’s ability to meet financial obligations, as they also reflect investor confidence in economic institutions, the policy environment and a country’s capacity to attract and sustain long-term capital.
She noted that stronger sovereign ratings could influence borrowing costs, investment decisions and access to international financing for both governments and businesses.
The Minister said Nigeria’s path to investment-grade status would rest on four interconnected pillars: fiscal health and domestic revenue mobilisation; debt sustainability and liability management; economic diversification, investment and productivity; as well as institutional strengthening and policy credibility.
On fiscal management, she said Nigeria must broaden its revenue base, improve tax compliance, digitalise revenue administration and reduce its dependence on volatile oil revenues.
Under the proposed NDP 2026–2030, government revenue is projected to increase from 11.15 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030.
She, however, noted that the revenue targets remained projections whose achievement would depend on effective reforms and improved collection efficiency.
Uzoka-Anite also said higher revenue mobilisation would have to be accompanied by more efficient public spending, with government resources increasingly directed towards infrastructure, human capital, healthcare, education and economic diversification.
The Plan projects capital expenditure to account for 57.43 per cent of total government expenditure by 2030, compared with 36.03 per cent in 2025.
She said achieving the target would require efficient project preparation, transparent procurement, effective monitoring and accountability for results.
On debt management, the Minister said borrowing could support national development when directed towards productive investments, but warned that weak revenues and high debt-servicing costs could undermine fiscal sustainability.
She cited an International Monetary Fund estimate that Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal deficit stood at 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2025, stressing the need for continued fiscal adjustment and stronger domestic revenue mobilisation.
Under the NDP 2026–2030 proposal, public debt is projected to decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030, while the Federal Government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio is projected to fall from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 per cent.
The Minister said the projections would depend on sustained economic growth, prudent borrowing and effective fiscal management.
She added that the Federal Government would continue to strengthen debt management, manage refinancing risks and deepen the domestic capital market through instruments including Sukuk, green bonds and carefully structured public-private partnerships.
According to her, the central principle should be that government borrowing expands productive capacity rather than perpetuating fiscal pressures.
On economic diversification, Uzoka-Anite said Nigeria could not build a strong sovereign credit profile on a narrow economic base.
She identified agriculture, manufacturing, refining, solid minerals, digital services, energy and logistics as sectors offering significant opportunities for diversification of output, exports, employment and foreign-exchange earnings.
The NDP projects real GDP growth to rise from 4.68 per cent in 2026 to 10.34 per cent by 2030, representing an average growth rate of 7.79 per cent over the Plan period.
Gross capital formation is also projected to rise to 40 per cent of GDP by 2030, with the private sector expected to account for approximately 72 per cent of cumulative investment.
Uzoka-Anite said achieving the targets would require improvements in infrastructure, energy supply, access to finance, regulatory efficiency and policy predictability.
She stressed that the Federal Government could not finance Nigeria’s development requirements alone, saying its role should increasingly focus on creating an enabling environment for private investment, strengthening domestic value chains and supporting productivity-enhancing sectors.
“Ultimately, the strength of Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile will depend on the competitiveness and productivity of its real sector,” she said.
The Minister also identified institutional quality and policy credibility as critical to improving Nigeria’s sovereign creditworthiness.
She said investors require confidence in the country’s policies, institutions, procurement processes, regulatory environment and economic statistics, adding that transparency, accountability, policy consistency and effective implementation would be essential to building that confidence.
Uzoka-Anite said the government was strengthening public financial management, procurement, project monitoring and evaluation, while also working to improve the quality of public institutions.
She noted that reliable economic data remained equally important, saying the rebasing of GDP and the Consumer Price Index provided an opportunity to improve the measurement of economic activity and inflation.
The Minister disclosed that the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning was institutionalising a National Macroeconomic Dashboard to monitor growth, inflation, revenue, fiscal balances, debt, investment, external-sector developments, employment and other key indicators.
She added that the government had also constituted a Macroeconomic Assumptions Standing Committee to periodically assess macroeconomic indicators and report to the Economic Management Team.
According to her, the initiatives are expected to strengthen evidence-based policymaking, improve policy coordination and facilitate timely adjustments when economic conditions change.
The Minister said the pursuit of stronger credit ratings must ultimately translate into improved living standards for Nigerians, stressing that macroeconomic stability should be accompanied by positive microeconomic outcomes for citizens.
She pointed to the Renewed Hope Ward-Based Development Programme as an opportunity to connect national development priorities with infrastructure, production, employment and basic services across Nigeria’s 8,809 wards.
She said the success of the programme would depend on adequate financing, effective targeting, transparent implementation and measurable outcomes.
