WASHINGTON – With US petrol prices up, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings down and the Iran war dragging on, Republicans are recalibrating their blueprint ahead of the November midterm elections.
The strategy? Seek to tap Mr Trump’s turnout power without making the races a referendum on an increasingly unpopular President.
In a closed-door meeting this week with top conservative campaign officials, Mr Trump’s political advisers – including White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, political chief James Blair and long-time pollster Tony Fabrizio – outlined a plan for candidates to promote Republicans’ tax cuts and inflation-fighting policies, according to four sources familiar with the gathering.
But Republicans want to avoid making Mr Trump himself the focus of the campaign, as strategists worry that his sagging political fortunes could hurt candidates in competitive congressional races. Mr Trump’s party faces an uphill battle to keep its House of Representatives majority, and a growing risk of losing control of the Senate.
Among some Republican operatives, concern is increasing that Mr Trump’s presidency – and political clout – are running out of gas, according to three of the sources, plus another seasoned Republican campaign source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private meetings and offer candid assessments.
Mr Trump appears mired in a deadlock with Iran, with both military and diplomatic efforts falling far short of denuclearising the Islamic republic and reopening the Strait of Hormuz after two months of war. Rising petrol prices – the national average is near US$4 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association – threaten to neutralise new tax policies from Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, the signature legislative achievement of Mr Trump’s second term.
Only 36 per cent of Americans approve of Mr Trump’s job performance, the lowest of his current term, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. And many Americans, including some Republicans, have some concerns about the 79-year-old President’s temperament and mental sharpness following a series of explosive outbursts.
“(Democrats) are going to try to nationalise the election and say we’re a rubber stamp for Trump,” a Trumpworld political strategist told Reuters. “We have to break out of that and show race by race why we’re the better choice.”
Inside the President’s political operation, enthusiasm remains strong that Mr Trump is an effective messenger. Ms Kiersten Pels, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, said that Mr Trump would remain “the most powerful driver” of conservative voter turnout in the midterms, and that Republican candidates are eagerly seeking his endorsement.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Mr Trump was the “unequivocal leader of the Republican party and he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress”.
Over coffee and pastries in the meeting on April 20, held at what was once Mr Trump’s luxury Washington hotel, now the Waldorf Astoria, Mr Trump’s team asked guests to sign non-disclosure agreements, then predicted that Republicans would win a redistricting election the next day in Virginia. The mood was optimistic, the sources familiar with the gathering said.
Details of the meeting leaked immediately. A day later, Virginia voters approved the new congressional map Democrats drew to favour their party in November.
“If the people framing this approach are confident about Virginia and they get beat in Virginia, you have to question, are they overconfident about the whole package?” one of the sources familiar with the meeting said.
Some Republican insiders are quick to point out that the midterm elections are months away, and that much can change before voters go to the polls. If armed hostilities with Iran slow, petrol prices could fall and inflation could cool more broadly.
“The panic is people looking at things right now, but I think the key is to project where it could be over the summer, and it’s still very fluid,” said Mr David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth.
Headed into the election cycle, Republicans planned to promote Mr Trump as the party’s standard-bearer, and as the figure who, in his oft-repeated phrase, turned the US into “the hottest country anywhere in the world”.
Ms Wiles in December said Republicans would upend the traditional midterm playbook by putting Mr Trump “on the ballot”, rather than keeping the sitting President at a distance.
Now, the sources said, that plan is less attractive. Republicans will look to emphasise local issues rather than allegiance to the President, they added.
“The politics have changed,” said another source familiar with the meeting. “In January, nationalising the race around him made some sense.
“Voters don’t feel the President is doing enough to make their lives cheaper, but they still believe Republicans want to do that,” the source said.
The Trumpworld strategist added that the Democratic Party’s low popularity gives Republicans an effective foil with which to contrast policy ideas.
Mr Trump’s faltering support, though, could give Democrats fertile ground to attach Republican candidates to the President’s shortcomings, making some conservative campaign operatives sceptical of the White House’s political approach.
After campaigning in 2024 as a critic of “stupid wars” and styling himself as a “peace president”, Mr Trump is now overseeing the largest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Critics say Mr Trump’s administration showed little consideration of how Iran would respond to the joint US-Israeli attack or the vast economic fallout, including an unprecedented global energy supply shock and the threat of a worldwide financial downturn.
Mr Trump’s decision on April 21 to indefinitely extend what was originally a two-week ceasefire was widely viewed as a retreat, with Tehran maintaining its grip on the Strait of Hormuz and commitment to a nuclear programme.
Dr Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for both Democratic and Republican administrations, said that Iran believes it holds leverage with the vital oil shipment channel and can also endure more economic pain than Mr Trump.
“The Iranians think Trump’s tolerance for an economic and political price is limited,” said Dr Miller, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They’re prepared to wait him out.” REUTERS
