A total of seven new modular refineries are projected to begin operations in Nigeria in 2027.
Together, they will add a combined refining capacity of 83,000 barrels per day to the country’s domestic refining industry.
The development was disclosed by George Maher-Bonnett of Argus Media during a presentation at the OTL Africa Downstream conference held in Lagos on Wednesday.
Speaking on the changing dynamics of Nigeria’s petroleum products market, Maher-Bonnett said four modular refineries were operating in the country as of September 2026, with a combined refining capacity of 32,000 barrels per day.
In his presentation titled African Energy Outlook, he stated that seven additional modular refineries were expected to commence operations next year.
“Four modular refineries operating in September, total 32,000 b/d capacity,” he said.
He added, “Seven new modular refineries to start next year,” noting that the proposed facilities would have a combined capacity of 83,000 barrels per day.
The projected expansion represents a major increase in Nigeria’s modular refining capacity, as the seven proposed facilities are expected to add more than twice the combined capacity of the four modular refineries currently operating.
If the projects become operational as projected, they could strengthen domestic petroleum products production, reduce the country’s dependence on imported refined products and increase the contribution of smaller refineries to the local energy market.
However, details about the seven proposed refineries, including their owners, locations, individual capacities and specific commissioning dates, were not provided during the presentation.
Maher-Bonnett also discussed the growing influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Nigeria’s petroleum products market, particularly its contribution to improving the country’s self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.
According to him, the increasing output from the Dangote refinery is changing the country’s fuel supply situation, even as domestic petroleum products demand has declined this year.
The presentation attributed the reduction in fuel demand partly to higher prices, noting that Nigerians were adjusting their consumption in response to rising costs.
“Nigerian fuels demand is down this year,” the presentation stated, identifying “higher flat prices” as one of the factors behind the decline.
It further noted that Nigeria’s self-sufficiency in petroleum products was improving as the Dangote refinery increased its output, while the expected arrival of additional modular refineries could further strengthen domestic supply.
The presentation also observed that government intervention in the petroleum products market had been limited during the period under review, apart from a price reduction by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company in October.
“No government interventions, besides NNPC price cut this month,” it stated.
On the performance of the Dangote refinery, Maher-Bonnett said the 700,000-barrel-per-day facility in Lekki, Lagos State, was operating at a high rate, with petrol production remaining steady.
“Dangote’s 700,000 bpd Lekki refinery is running hard, gasoline output is steady,” the presentation stated.
The increasing production from the facility has also affected the economics of petroleum products imports into West Africa, particularly supplies shipped from Europe.
According to the presentation, the growing availability of locally refined products in Nigeria is reducing the attractiveness of importing some petroleum products from Europe into the West African market.
It also highlighted the impact of shipping costs on international petroleum products trade, noting that the economics of transporting refined products from Europe to West Africa and from Europe to the United States had weakened.
Beyond Nigeria, Maher-Bonnett identified Ghana as another West African country recording improvements in domestic refining capacity.
He noted that the 45,000-barrel-per-day Tema refinery was increasing production, helping Ghana improve its self-sufficiency in petroleum products.
