Late last month, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) made headlines by announcing its decision to leave the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+.
On 1 May, the UAE officially left both, marking a significant shake-up for the organisation that coordinates oil production among some of the world’s largest producers. Just two days later, the UAE exited the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Having joined OPEC in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, the UAE long stood among the cartel’s most influential members. Given its rank as OPEC’s third-largest producer and OPEC+’s fourth, the UAE’s exit removes a key swing producer, weakening the group’s responsiveness to market changes.
As the world’s eighth-largest oil producer, the UAE, alongside its long-serving energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, consistently played a leading role in negotiation and dialogue.
In periods of tension, frequently involving founding member Iran, the UAE was often relied upon to help defuse conflict, serving as an effective mediator.
The UAE’s departure will allow the country to increase its oil output independently, especially once exports through the Strait of Hormuz resume, with potential ramifications for the balance of power in global energy markets.
The decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s energy strategy, with Al Mazrouei emphasising that Abu Dhabi made this move to advance the UAE’s national interests.
While the UAE has long respected Saudi Arabia’s leadership within the group, Abu Dhabi seeks greater flexibility to pursue ambitious production goals, including achieving five million barrels per day by 2027.
The exit comes amid regional tensions, including Iranian missile and drone attacks on military and civilian targets in the UAE following the launch of America and Israel’s war on the Islamic Republic in late February, and the subsequent dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has constrained the UAE’s oil exports.
Beyond the immediate market implications, the UAE’s exit underscores a broader geopolitical shift.
The UAE has strengthened ties with the United States and Israel, carving out its own influence in the Middle East and Africa, and distancing itself from Saudi Arabia on key economic and geopolitical issues such as Somalia and Somaliland, Sudan, Israel and Palestine, and Yemen.
For OPEC, the departure of one of its few members with significant spare production capacity raises questions about the sustainability of the organisation’s role as a stabiliser in global oil markets, while consumers and economies could benefit from potential increases in supply.
A push for greater autonomy from Saudi influence
The US-Israeli war on Iran was not the proximate cause for the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC. However, it seems that the war gave Abu Dhabi the chance to take this action, which it had spent years mulling.
To understand the UAE’s quest to break away from a Saudi-dominated institution such as OPEC, it is necessary to consider the historical context.
“The UAE had long been pondering an exit from OPEC, but the war accelerated a shift already underway in pursuit of strategic autonomy away from OPEC discipline and toward even closer alignment with the US,” said Dr Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, in an interview with The New Arab.
Patrick Theros, the former US ambassador to Qatar, explained that an Emirati view of the Saudi state as “predatory” has long informed the UAE’s perspective on the Kingdom.
“Historically, the smaller states of the Gulf have depended on alliances with major outside powers to protect themselves from whoever governs the Nejd. The Nejdi tribes have constantly attacked, whether for booty or for conquest, since time immemorial. The modern Saudi state sent the White Army to occupy Buraimi (Al-Ain) in 1952, almost precipitating a US versus UK war,” he told TNA.
“The UAE has decided it will not depend so much on foreign assistance but confront the Kingdom on its own. UAE support for Yemeni separatists and the Saudi reaction should be seen in this light. Pulling out of OPEC not only has some important economic advantages for the UAE. It does not have to conform to Saudi-imposed quotas, but reduces Saudi influence in the Gulf,” added Theros.
Exiting OPEC was a clear signal from the UAE that it will no longer remain in Saudi Arabia’s shadow or simply follow Riyadh’s lead. Abu Dhabi intends to act decisively in accordance with Emirati national interests, a stance that now shapes nearly every facet of the UAE’s policies.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC challenges the Saudi-led status quo in the Arab region. It was not lost on observers that the UAE’s announced withdrawal from the cartel occurred the same day that an emergency Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit was held in Jeddah for the purpose of addressing the Iranian threat to Gulf Arab states.
As a consequence of the Emirati announcement, the international press focused on Abu Dhabi’s exit from OPEC instead of the GCC summit’s affirmation of a “unified Gulf stance” against Tehran’s aggression.
“It’s not meant to be provocative against the Saudis, but it is a demonstration that the UAE is no longer willing to let Riyadh take the lead and simply follow dutifully,” explained Dr Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, in a TNA interview.
“Over the past year we have been seeing that in almost every field in which the two countries find themselves in competition, and Abu Dhabi’s withdrawal from OPEC+ is another indication that the UAE is following its own drummer because the quotas that were being allowed via membership in that Saudi-dominated organisation, with Russia as a close secondary partner, were not sufficient for the UAE’s point of view,” he added.
The UAE aims to capitalise on and sell its oil as quickly as possible, whereas most other major exporters prioritise conserving their reserves, selling more gradually to maximise long-term value.
“The UAE is so far along in its economic diversification program that it no longer feels bound to highly limited quotas designed to preserve existing stocks and instead wants to ‘drill, baby drill,’ as fossil fuel enthusiasts in the US put it,” said Dr Ibish.
Impact on OPEC and global oil markets
In 2025, the UAE accounted for approximately three percent of global oil exports and about 12percent of total OPEC exports, while OPEC as a whole supplied roughly 36 percent of the world’s oil exports.
In this context, the removal of UAE exports would be unlikely to greatly diminish OPEC’s overall influence on global oil markets. For the UAE, however, the advantages appear significant, as greater autonomy would allow it to fully utilise its existing production capacity and pursue further expansion of its export capabilities.
“We are still at least a decade or more away from alternative energy making an impact on demand for oil and gas globally,” noted Theros. “So long as Saudi Arabia and Russia cooperate and the Chinese market remains stable, OPEC will still be the oil market-maker.”
Nonetheless, the UAE’s exit is likely to complicate OPEC+’s ability to establish and sustain stable price floors and ceilings, which has been an objective central to the expanded group’s formation under Saudi and Russian leadership.
“OPEC + will probably still be able to establish floors and ceilings for oil prices globally but it’s going to be harder to maintain them and they will probably try to convince the UAE to rejoin at some future date with enhanced quotas, especially if they find that the loss of the UAE is a crucial obstacle to effective establishment of satisfactory floors and ceilings in global oil prices,” explained Dr Ibish.
Looking ahead beyond the immediate future, OPEC’s influence is set to steadily wane. The United States, now the world’s leading oil producer, operates entirely outside the cartel.
With the UAE’s departure, OPEC’s share of global energy production has already fallen below 30 percent. Its relevance could erode even faster if Abu Dhabi’s move encourages other dissatisfied members to reconsider their membership and follow the UAE’s lead.
After all, Qatar exited the cartel in 2019, citing its long-term economic strategy and a growing divergence from OPEC’s trajectory. Angola followed in 2024 due to disagreements over output quotas.
Together, these departures combined with the UAE’s withdrawal this month underscore a clear pattern whereby members are willing to leave when their leaders determine that membership in the organisation ceases to advance their national interests.
Regional geopolitics and Gulf relations
How the UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ will impact Abu Dhabi’s relationships with Saudi Arabia and others in the GCC raises interesting questions.
Although Abu Dhabi’s decision will likely constitute the latest source of tension in Emirati-Saudi relations, it appears unlikely that this development will put the two GCC members into any direct conflict.
“This won’t break ties between the UAE and Saudi Arabia but will intensify the not-so-quiet competition over who sets the pace in global energy markets and regional economic leadership,” noted Dr Vakil.
Dr Ibish offers a similar assessment, noting that bilateral relations may face increased strain, while maintaining that a rupture on the scale of the 2017 crisis between Qatar and several Arab states is unlikely in the current context of UAE–Saudi ties. “In this case, I [expect the two] countries to continue to glare at each other and bicker but not devolve into total confrontation,” he told TNA.
“The UAE is messaging strongly that it is its own independent, powerful and significant actor that will not take a backseat to anyone, except maybe the United States, regarding national defence because of its dependence on American weaponry and Washington’s large military footprint in the region,” added Dr Ibish.
“Other than that, the UAE appears to be saying, we do what we want for our own purposes, and we aren’t interested if that offends Saudi Arabia or any other country because it shouldn’t. But, of course, it undoubtedly will.”
The bigger picture
The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+ is best understood as the culmination of a long-developing shift in Abu Dhabi’s policies.
For years, the UAE has signalled its intention to pursue a more diversified and forward-looking energy policy, integrating oil production with broader investments in renewables and technology amid a grander economic transformation.
In this sense, leaving OPEC reflects a recalibration of oil policy as well as a wider evolution in how the UAE approaches global engagement and multilateral frameworks at a time when such institutions are under growing strain.
At the regional level, the move underscores the reality that while GCC members share a common vision of prosperity and stability, they increasingly differ on how best to achieve it.
These divergences are now playing out more visibly in energy policy, where national priorities – whether maximising output, preserving reserves, or accelerating diversification – do not always align. The UAE’s departure highlights this shift toward more individualised strategies, even among historically close partners.
Yet, this step should not necessarily be interpreted as a wholesale rejection of cooperation. The UAE continues to share deep economic, political, and security ties with its GCC neighbours, and its exit from OPEC does not necessarily preclude future coordination on oil markets or broader regional initiatives.
Indeed, Gulf Arab states have repeatedly demonstrated a capacity to manage disagreements while preserving the underlying cohesion of their relationships.
Ultimately, the UAE’s move signals a shifting order in the Gulf whereby competition and collaboration are to be balanced.
Yet, just how effectively members of the GCC will strike this delicate balance will have a huge impact on the future geopolitics of the Arab world and the evolving dynamics of global energy markets against the backdrop of massive disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran’s attacks on energy infrastructure in GCC states, and the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero
Edited by Charlie Hoyle
