Africa is heading toward an 86m tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, and the ongoing war involving Iran has laid bare how dangerously exposed the continent is to disruptions at global shipping chokepoints, according to a new report by the Africa Finance Corporation launched in Nairobi on Thursday.
The AFC said Africa currently imports over 70 percent of its refined fuel, alongside roughly $230bn worth of essential goods annually, including food, plastics, steel, and fertiliser.
The continent’s dependence on fuel imports is projected to climb steadily from 74m tonnes in 2023 to 86m tonnes by 2040, a volume equivalent to nearly three Dangote refineries, the largest on the continent.
Speaking at the report’s launch, AFC Chief Economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze said the crisis in the Middle East had made the consequences of this dependence impossible to ignore.
The effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global fuel transport passes, has left import-dependent countries in East Africa facing critical shortages.
She noted that the strait is not the only chokepoint posing a threat to the continent’s supply lines.
The war has also triggered a fertiliser crisis across Africa, given that a significant share of the continent’s fertiliser supply originates from the Gulf.
Babihuga-Nsanze described this as another vulnerability the crisis had brought sharply into focus, pointing out a striking contradiction at the heart of Africa’s situation, while the continent holds 80 percent of the world’s phosphate reserves, a primary fertiliser source, it produces only 20 percent of global supply.
She said this gap represents a significant opportunity for Africa to reduce its external dependence and step into a role it is naturally positioned to fill.
The report called for the development of new energy hubs and better utilisation of existing assets to close the shortfall.
Babihuga-Nsanze cited Zambian dams ill-equipped to handle shifting drought conditions and two gigawatts of Angolan hydropower that remains disconnected from the regional grid and effectively wasted as examples of the inefficiencies holding Africa back.
