Kylian Mbappe’s hopes of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or have suffered a major setback following France’s FIFA World Cup semi-final exit, with former Arsenal striker Jeremie Aliadiere backing Lionel Messi as the new favourite for the award.
Mbappe had emerged as one of the leading contenders after scoring eight goals to help France reach the World Cup semi-finals.
However, defeat to Spain ended Les Bleus’ title challenge, while Real Madrid also finished the 2025-26 season without a major trophy.
Aliadiere said those setbacks could prove decisive in the race for football’s biggest individual honour.
Speaking to GOAL, the former France forward said: “Yeah, I think so.
“I think if he’s had a fantastic year in terms of winning something with Real Madrid, then he probably could still be in the running but without winning anything with Madrid…”
Despite praising Mbappe’s individual performances, Aliadiere believes the lack of silverware will count against the Real Madrid forward.
He said: “Even if on a personal level, I thought he had a great season, scored a ridiculous amount of goals and carried the team for most part of the season.
“So, individually, he’s had a fantastic season but, unfortunately, without winning any trophies we know the rules to be a Ballon d’Or.
“You’ve got to win, Champions League or World Cup or Euros.”
Aliadiere added: “So, having not done that, I can’t see him being the Ballon d’Or.
“It’s a shame because I thought Harry Kane would have had a good shot if England went all the way as well, but same for him.”
The Frenchman believes the award is now likely to go to an Argentina player, with Messi leading the race after guiding the defending champions into another World Cup final.
He said: “I think it’ll probably be one of Argentina.
“Messi, if he wins it again, I think everybody’s just going to be mesmerised by the age and what he’s produced at the World Cup and forget that he plays in MLS for Inter Miami.”
Messi has scored eight goals during Argentina’s run to the World Cup final and is aiming to defend the title won in Qatar in 2022.
The 39-year-old is also chasing what would be a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or after winning the MLS Cup and Most Valuable Player award with Inter Miami during the 2025 season.
Former Brazil midfielder Kleberson also believes Messi remains a strong contender for the award if Argentina lift the World Cup.
He told GOAL: “Wow! That guy never stops! Argentina has more chance of winning the World Cup with Messi than any other country, just because Messi is still playing at a good level.”
Comparing Messi with Cristiano Ronaldo, Kleberson said: “It’s different from Ronaldo.
“He is still playing at a level, but the players around Ronaldo, it’s not the same as Messi has with Argentina.
“It’s purity. What Portuguese players have and Argentine players have is completely different.
“That’s why Messi has a lot of chance.”
He added: “If he goes and wins the World Cup, 100 per cent he’s going to be up to win the Ballon d’Or again.
“He’s brilliant.
“Even Brazilian players and fans look at him and want to see good players win the Ballon d’Or and the World Cup – players that are a joy to see play. Messi is one of those.”
